It was good while it lasted

Telecom sector in India (at around 4% of GDP) has seen a lot of action over the past year, with the launch of several new players and their frenzy to woo subscribers by lowering tariffs, impacting the sector’s fantastic revenue growth of the sector over the past several quarters. With two key developments this year, viz. Mobile Number Portability (MNP) and launch of 3G services, the times ahead for the players are going to be challenging rather than exciting.

1. Inability to command tariffs
   • With voice call charges per minute at 52 paise/ min (around 1/8th of a penny), most players would be looking at 3G as the next vine of revenue to hang on to. But, a combination of subscriber-thirsty new GSM operators and subscriber-loaded old GSM operators as 3G players is a recipe for disaster for the industry. The savage tariff war for voice services has left the industry in shambles. If this tariff war extends to 3G services, which it most likely will, it will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back
   • The data services value chain in India is ill-developed. There is lack of readily available databases or content on which applications can be built to provide services to customer. As such, there will be heavy dependence on data-ridden voice services such as video-calling to provide services. These services will be competing with low-cost 2G ridden voice services substitutes – making charging economically rational tariffs difficult
2. Huge debt burden or Dilution of ownership
   • Bharti Airtel has paid a total of Rs.12,295 crore for access to 3G spectrum in 13 circles. There operating cash flows in FY 2009 were to the tune of Rs. 12,000 crore, whereas free cash flows were around Rs. 2,500 crores (source: Annual Report FY 2009 of Bharti Airtel). With revenues stagnating due to falling tariffs, the operating cash flow will be under pressure. Inevitably, Bharti Airtel will have to raise funds through debt or equity route. Without loss of generality, it can be assumed that this will be the case for most players
   • A debt and the subsequent interest burden is likely to hit players hard, if a situation where revenues are under pressure continues to exist. Even if the debt is raised overseas, unless it attracts extremely favorable credit ratings, very unlikely, the interest burden is bound to be significant
   • Valuation of most telecom players have dropped by more than 40%, even as the market has grown by 60% over the same period. With such poor valuations, raising equity will imply significant dilution of ownership, which would lead to loss of control in some measure
3. Launch of MNP vs Delay in allocation of 3G waves
   • Firstly, there is a delay anticipated in the allocation of spectrum to the players. The allocation hinges on the Defense department vacating the spectrum, which in turn hinges on BSNL readying an alternative fibre-optic network for them. The resultant delay will push the date of allocation of spectrum by 4 months from the stipulated September 2010
   • Secondly, MNP is slated for launch around September 2010. It will allow customers the freedom to switch operators without having to give up their number. The older and bigger players will then have to fight a uphill battle to discourage their high value customers, who would be the early adopters of 3G enabled services, to newer 3G-enabled operators. The older operators will have to go to any extent to protect their 3G revenues, even making losses on 2G services in the interim

Either way, consumers will pay

After much await, 3G services will finally be available to Indian telecom consumers. The high prices that auction has attracted, lack of a pan-India 3G services provider and a lower tariff regime will ensure that the consumer pays, one-way or the other.

1. High tariffs
   • It is natural to assume that, as discussed above, if the voice tariff wars do not extend to 3G services, consumers will have to pay considerably high charges for availing even the most basic 3G services
2. Lack of true data services
   • In developed markets too, 3G was primarily deployed to deliver voice content – data-ridden voice – until recently, when the apropos development in the upstream of value chain, true data services such as location-based services, social networking, music downloads, mobile books downloads, etc have started taking over
   • There is an urgency to direct effort and investment in developing the data services ecosystem in India, something which is less likely to happen, at least, in the near to medium term. If ability of operators to command high tariffs is impaired, the delay in true data services will become even longer
3. Poor network quality
   • A tariff war will have direct implication on the quality of service of the 3G network. The quality of service on existing 2G network itself is not very laudable, even with the best operators. Consumers will thus have to pay in terms of poor experience of 3G services, as operators cut corners in a bid to sustain profitability
   • There has been no takers for the pan-India spectrum due to the high costs of the auction. This implies players will be required to ally to provide pan India services. With the existing levels of competition, apprehensions about sabotage combined with generally poor lack of enforcement of contracts in India, will imply that such alliances will be on weak support, impacting in turn service quality

The Pandora’s Box isn’t empty

The callous approach to Telecom regulation has opened this Pandora’s box for the industry (which will eventually translate into trouble for consumers). And TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India) and government isn’t done defining/ shaping the rules of the game yet.

1. Spectrum Policy
   • Recently, TRAI has recommended an approach on Spectrum Management & Licensing. One of the key recommendations, is to make the GSM operators pay for spectrum over 6.2MHz and CDMA operators pay for spectrum over 5MHz at market prices determined by the 3G auction
   • Such mid-course abrupt change of rules can spell disaster in an industry where operators have to commit significant capital investment upfront. Considering that the outlay for 3G itself will be huge an additional stress on the operators’ balance sheet, will only do more harm than good
   • A better way to manage spectrum is through a spectrum exchange, as some have argued. It will bring in efficiency through improved specialization in spectrum management in the telecom value chain, and not bring abrupt shocks to the industry. In an industry, which has become crowded with players interested in primarily hoarding the spectrum than extend services to the Indian masses, it will spur consolidation, currently hindered due to the regulations
2. 4G – now a distant dream
   • 4th generation technologies offer key advances over 3G technology for wireless communication. Backward compatibility with both GSM and CDMA technologies is one of the most important advances in this technology. However, if the apprehensions surrounding the inability to reap benefits of 3G in near to mid-term turn out true, then it would imply unwillingness of operators to go in for 4G spectrum auction any time soon and deprive consumers of a better technology
   • In India, where a sizable subscriber base is on CDMA platform, the prudence of not leaping to 4G from 2G and hanging on to 3G is questionable. Even as, cell phone manufacturers are yet to to catch up with 4G technology, a bit of delay over an already delayed 3G spectrum allocation would not have made a huge difference to the economy. It would however have created a level playing field between GSM and CDMA operators and fostered productive competition for subscribers/ usage rather than unproductive competition for favorable policy(s)
3. MNP
   • As discussed above, any delay in 3G spectrum allocation vs launch of MNP will mean greater costs to the industry
   • MNP is intended to remove a key barrier to entry in the Telecom industry. However, by favoring 3G (compatible only with GSM technologies) over 4G regulation, it has ultimately disadvantaged CDMA operators vis-a-vis GSM operators and hindered competition in the country. In effect, many of the benefits which MNP was supposed to bring the consumer may only remain on paper
4. Consolidation Norms
   • The regulatory framework on consolidation poses impenetrable barriers to consolidation in a fragmented industry. If these norms are not rationalized, the scale required by operators to foster any real innovation in 3G powered data-services beyond the phony innovation of price reduction will not be achieved

Other broad implications

The Rs. 67,710 crores that the auction will fetch the government will be around Rs. 32,000 crores more than the budgeted Rs. 35,000 crores. The government’s receipts this fiscal (FY2010-11) is budgeted at Rs. 11,08,749 crores. It implies an additional revenue of ~2.9% of budgeted to the exchequer. Ceteris paribus, it would reduce the fiscal deficit to 2.6% from budgeted 5.5%. If predictions of good monsoon stand vindicated, a further decline in fiscal deficit can be expected.

Discounting the treasury view, that fiscal effects have little impact on economy, we can anticipate a medium term softening of interest rates as government borrowing reduces and inflation lowers. This could eventually boost consumption and benefit Telecom companies indirectly.

Other possibilities are also likely:

1. The excess amount is directed towards more social sector spending, having no effective impact on the fiscal deficit. Next year, West Bengal – a critical state from political perspective – goes to polls for State Assembly elections. The extra monies could be used to create outlays for people of West Bengal by the Government
   • Likewise, it could redirect expenditures, plan or non-plan to meet its political objectives and as a by-product to suit social ends too
2. Government has sought to generate Rs. 25,000 crore from divestment of PSUs in the current fiscal. With the Rs.32,000 crore bonus on 3G auction (and probably more from BWA auction), it is likely that these divestments are delayed
   • It could similarly redirect any other efforts at increasing revenues – aimed at reducing subsidies, recovery of loans, etc

All this would negate the possible benefits that a reduced fiscal deficit might bring, apart from the externalities that such actions would create.

3G services offer an unbridled promise to reduce inequalities and exploitation due through reduction in information asymmetries via faster/ better information flows consequent to expansion of internet services in the hinterland of the country where traditional wireline internet services can’t reach. The high cost of the auction will actually make this very difficult as discussed above. This will be the real loss – unmeasurable but real.

Update 1:

The government made a killing with BWA auctions. Instead of the anticipated Rs. 35,000 crore from the 3G and BWA auction, the government ended up receiving Rs. 106,262 crore. This additional ~7% in receipts could wipe out the entire fiscal deficit, estimated at 5.5%, this year for the government. However, now there are even more incentives for the government to increase the social sector outlay to meet political ends. Any deficit rate lower than the budget estimates is bound to give the government a chance to give itself and to demand from others a pat on the back.

In the meantime, BSNL has threatened to strike and asked for being waived for entire Rs. 18,500 crore of charges which it is required to pay. The Telecom Ministry is advocating a refund to MTNL also. The request, if accepted by the Finance Ministry, has potential to dramatically change the post-3G market conditions by distorting competitive advantage in favor of both the ailing PSUs (more on it in a separate post).

Views expressed are personal.

According to Cadbury Marketing Director:

… the new TVC highlights the celebratory occasion of pay-day, which is an important event in the life of every middle-class Indian.

and O&M Creative Director

… the first of every month is the day everyone feels rich and in the mood to indulge.

as also

Pay day emotes feelings that are naturally celebratory in nature.

The intent of the campaign according to Cadbury seems to be to reinforce an already existing behavior of Indian consumers of celebrating payday or existing need for celebration of it.

In the follow-up, the campaign was mocked by a Nestle Munch’s aaj dusri taareekh hai commercial, which emphasized that chocolates can be had any day of the month and not just the 1st and thus implying that pay-day is not important as Cadbury made it out to be.

Brand wars are not uncommon, but in the chocolates segment this is probably the first in India (or the world?). And unlike most brand wars, these two brands were fighting over their views on consumer behavior with respect to consumption of chocolates, and not much about claims about whose proposition is better (for e.g. the recent detergent wars by HUL – more on that later).

Of course, what is of interest is to learn who among the CDM (Cadbury Dairy Milk) and Nestle Munch has a more correct view about consumer behavior. But even elementarily, why would Cadbury raise it’s stakes on Indian consumer’s behavior? Let us try to answer the latter first, and then come back to the former.

Bet on Indian Consumer’s Behavior

1. The Revenue Argument
   • The naive answer as to why CDM brand’s proposition was extended would be to increase revenues. There are essentially, three broad ways that a company can organically boost its revenues: add new geographies, add new products/ segments and increased sales of existing products/ segments. The effort by Cadbury is of the last kind. It can be executed by having an intensive distribution of CDM and/or by fostering usage of CDM from existing consumer.
   • The former would help Cadbury reach the kind of the “first-time” consumer and increase penetration with “new” consumers – the kind who would be coming out of poverty, as Indian economy grows at above average rates, assuming existing consumption patterns don’t change. Since Cadbury chose the latter, it can be implied that having a intensive distribution, didn’t do the trick for CDM, most probably because existing consumption patterns changed to offset the benefits from acquiring “first-time” consumers.
   • The existing consumption patterns could have changed due to factors like – rising consciousness about calorie intake, increasing incidence of Diabetes, substitution with sugar-free chocolates, etc. All these would have made Cadbury to fall-back on some behavior of Indian consumers which would give them the needed revenue uptick.
2. The Brand Saliency Argument
   • According to Cadbury, the CDM brand promise is of happiness, and celebrating moments of joy is a natural extension of it. The pay-day is just one of the events, which as they conjecture is celebrated and hence strengthens the brand’s proposition. There are better ways of improving the brand saliency, such as launch of new products (such as CDM Silk recently), association with events/ shows which make consumer happy, etc. Also, improving brand saliency would imply running a campaign which is more general than restrict to specific message of pay-day, considering that cost of such campaigns usually run into tens of crores for a month or so.
   • While brand saliency benefit would have been expected out of the campaign, the message of the campaign and its execution, indicate that that benefit was not the prime decision criteria.

Mis-calculated Bet?

This isn’t the first time that Cadbury has played a gamble on consumer behavior. The shift would probably have happened when Cadbury defined its market as of “sweets” rather than only of “chocolates”. What followed were commercials which urged celebrating the Indian festivals like Diwali and Raksha Bandhan. Whether Cadbury grabbed market share of “sweets” or ended up expanding the “sweets” market, the gamble most likely paid off considering that the commercials resume around the time of those festivals every year. Also, several other factors, such as concern over freshness/ adulteration of purchased traditional sweets, lack of time to make traditional sweets with increasing number of dual-income families, etc would have ensured that the odds against Cadbury were not too high.

However, with pay-day commercials did Cadbury put it’s eggs in the wrong basket, as Nestle Munch’s response suggests? The accurate answer to this question warrants a thorough empirical investigation. As any such investigation isn’t in the public domain, an analytical investigation can be used shed some light on the issue.

1. Is 1st of the month really the pay-day?
   • Most salaries are typically credited at the last working day of the month and not on the 1st of the month, as the commercial assumes. It can be argued that in some companies the salaries are not credited but distributed. While this is true it doesn’t imply that the salary is given out on 1st of month. In fact, in the author’s personal observation with such business entities, salaries tend to be paid out beyond the 1st of the month (typically 7th or 15th of the month)
   • Indeed, while salary day was the motivation, the execution fails to convey the intent well. This indeed is a technical issue, but holds significance with respect to subject, because of explicit reliance of the communication on 1st of month metaphor for pay-day
2. Is pay-day really that significant?
   • It would be naive to assume that Indians (or for that matter la gente del mundo) don’t look forward to their pay-day, whether it is 1st of the month or not. What is however debatable is if the eagerness of anticipation rivals some of the other eagerness’ which surround human beings such as that of a weekend, favorite IPL team’s scores, results of kid’s exams, declaration of performance ratings at work, etc
   • It would not be incorrect to state that the eagerness of anticipation of pay-day would be proportional to the relevance of salary in addressing the concerns a person faces daily; like that of paying of bills, buying that present for the kid/ spouse, savoring the popular new flavor of ice-cream, recharging of one’s prepaid account for an overnight over-the-phone chat with one’s boyfriend/ girlfriend, buying the latest spoilers for one’s motor-bike, etc. It can be inferred that the actual object of happiness is not the salary. It is only a medium towards a more significant/ relevant end. The commercial reduced these objects to receipt of salary
   • Also, these objects of happiness are dependent specifically on wealth and indirectly on income (or salary), which fosters the former. One could actually enjoy these pleasures any time (of the month/ year) if one has sufficient wealth. If one lives hand-to-mouth and does not have enough wealth to do so, we can surmise that the commercial would probably not even be able to carry it’s message such a consumer segment
   • Besides, except for those engaged in selling, 1st of Month would be just another day at work for most people and would pass by unnoticed

All this does not imply that there would not exist some micro-segment, whose salaries get credited on 1st of month, which would attach above-average significance to pay-day. However, to tap into such micro-segments, BTL efforts (which Cadbury planned to do but alongside the pay-day theme) would be more justified. Spending tens of crores* on ATL efforts in 8 weeks, (more than a percentage point of Cadbury India revenues for which it would need to sell an additional few crores of the CDM units to break-even) to tap into micro-segments does not seem to prudent.

It does appear that Nestle Munch’s take on consumer behavior trumps CDM’s point of view.

The commercial which has now been withdrawn, made appearance as a 10-second spot around the 1st of the month for a while in 2009 and then resumed in March 2010. It however did seem to run its course of 8 weeks. These are most-likely bursts to spur consumption from the micro-segments without incurring huge costs and/or to boost off-takes with distributors.

In Conclusion

Business decisions are difficult, more so for a market leader, even more so in the Indian context. There is a pressing need on managers in such firms to defend turf as well as find that next vine of revenue to which the company can hang on to and maintain revenue market share. Some like HUL go aggressive to defend turf with PureIt and Rin (more of it in other post), some like Parle seek newer sources of revenue by expanding into adjacent categories like snacks; Cadbury chose to modify/ exploit consumer behavior. As increasing awareness of obesity and health concerns, drives consumption towards lighter chocolates, kind of products which Cadbury lacks in its portfolio, the manager’s choice was most likely governed by constraints than the objective(s). However, doing very little but enough (or even doing nothing) would probably have saved Cadbury money without costing them revenues and eventually benefited the shareholders as also sparing the TV viewers of a ill-entertaining commercial.

* Deduced ex-post from the length of the TV spots, time-of-day they were aired, association with programs and observation of channel coverage supplemented by author’s own experience with commercial spends

Update 1:

Cadbury has continued with the payday commercial till early Q1-FY2010-11. That was probably to support sales efforts i.e. they were bursts. Also, most Cadbury commercials have a long life. They are reused quite often for e.g. the festival commercials, the kuch khaas hai commercial.

They have come up with a new commercial this fiscal based on the shubh aarambh theme. This time they have combined the idea of sweetness with doing something new. The commercial cleverly links the excitement of doing something the first time (and the happiness of it going well) and the Indian (to be specific Hindu) tradition of feeding something sweet when embarking on something new. It is most likely to strike the necessary emotional connect to drive the necessary growth in usage and hence revenues.

We are born to a world, consistently struggling between online & offline communication. All official communication which was once maintained in Hard bound box files now find their place in bright yellow folders on the ‘my computer’ of some shared folder with limited access rights. This however does not mean that the hard bound version does not exist. That too exists, stacked away neatly in labeled files in some Godforsaken ‘file room’ which is occasionally opened to the ‘trying to peep in’ eyes of the employees.

The dilemma extends to online & offline means of communication, online & offline readings, online & offline bills & invoices, and online & offline offs as well. The hitherto well defined line (Format: Thickness – , Color – BLACK, Shadow – NONE) that defines on & off days no longer exists. Sick leave now means a ‘work from home’, casual leave means ‘will intermittently checks mails’, and Trek/Trip means ‘limited access to emails’. This gives birth to amazing creativity to out of office auto reply messages which we shall discuss in another post. People are always under the illusion of being connected and the multiple de-‘vices’ do nothing to improve the situation.

However, this post is NOT about general observations of online behavior. This is meant to address another dimension of online work life called e-mails. There are many aspects of e-mail communications namely:

1. The addressee – Hierarchy of address must mostly be descending, starting with the senior most. Alternately, it could be the other way round. Many a times, the urgency of replying to a mail differs in accordance with the positioning of id in the mail list. The farther the positioning of the name, the farther the priority of replying. The SIN in writing mails is ‘dear all’ and should be used only when intimating & NOT when action is required!

2. The CC Rule – It is mostly considered an insult if bosses of addressed are marked a cc on follow-ups. However, there exist a species of people who refuse to work without a copy to bosses unless their work goes unnoticed

3. The BCC Rule – This one should be a strict no-no. If the boss/colleague is in receipt of a mail where he is in bcc, he would not really not expect you to have more people in bcc when u send him a mail. Basic human tendency! So its best to steer clear of controversy

4. The signoff – Yours sincerely, Yours faithfully, Thanks & regards, Regards, BR, Thanks are all ways to sign off mails and say a lot about the person who is writing the mail. Some choose to even embellish their signatures with quotes (sometimes good) and icons (mostly unneeded unless corporate) However, yours sincerely/faithfully looks odd on an official mail…

5. The mail body – This is the funkiest part of the email. People can take offence for this like misplaced question-marks (how can you ASK me) or ill-placed commas. Typos are a big no-no…and so are incomplete names (such hurry?…I hate mails that call me “Dear Koma” how morbid!)

6. The footnote (read on)

It is important to note that all the above aspects, and importance attached to them are a function of an organization’s culture. (Here is a silent prayer for people on rotation in conglomerates!)

I would urge you to refer to the para where this post began to find out what triggered this post. The funny part is, if indeed I was not the intended recipient, and if by chance I decided to ‘return’ the document, how, in the name of the good Lord would I do it?? Send the soft copy back to the sender saying “consider returned”?

Guess I must just wait, until the transformation is complete…

Source : http://backarapper.wordpress.com/2010/03/12/consider-returned/

A colleague at work mentioned the other day, “One works to put food on the table”; Earn, Learn & make friends seems to be the new mantra for the new age employee who is slowly moving from lifetime employment to lifetime employability. The office-goers who spend the better part of the day in front of their machines re-login from the comforts of their homes to connect reconnect. Sometimes I wonder, where the childhood time we spent playing in the park go. Employee engagement practitioners can sure learn their bit from these social networking giants. After all, they do manage to make us part away with a portion of our ‘me-time’ to indulge in status updates to tell the world how sad or happy or annoyed we are.

Some interesting statistics to note would be:

1. Number of people online during work
2. Number of people online post work
3. The Rising wave of online applications which suddenly see an upsurge in usage patterns among common friend lists. E.g. Farmville, mafia wars, or even the random quizzes. It begins as a contagious fever & spreads through virtual contacts
4. Swelling number of people on Orkut, fB, twitter (ref: your own friend lists)
5. Shift towards fB & twitter from Orkut triggered by none other than a common community sentiment that collectively shunned one in the favour of the other
6. Always online syndrome- the popularity of smartphones, fring.com, data devices for broadband aka Tata Photon
7. Number of hours spent at work(counting not only the hours of physical presence but also the office thought process that never seems to leave one’s head) & the corresponding need to reach out
8. LinkedIn & its changing face- Most IT departments do not block this professional ‘networking’ website. LinkedIn on its part is becoming more and more personalized nowadays. What with the latest additions on personal details on professional profiles
9. Telecom on the go-death of the landline connections (Ref 6. Above)
10. Home internet connections Homes without internet connections
11. Fitness fetish for mouse potatoes … How many of you have joined the gym?

Source : http://backarapper.wordpress.com/2009/10/23/separated-by-a-mouse-click/

The campaign itself is laudable and best way to convince the customer about the product’s value proposition. However, strikingly and interestingly, all the testimonials are given by women who are gori – ie. they have a fair complexion.This anomaly is particularly noticeable because Dove does not explicitly promise whitening of skin; only softening of skin. A rather simple (or simplistic?) explanation is that those who provided testimonials happened to be fair. But, for this to happen some highly paid people would have to really not do anything. It would be safe to assume that randomness did not cause this anomaly.

Having dumped the randomness argument, we now have a case where testimonials were taken from both fair and dark complexioned people and yet the striking disconnect. What could possibly explain this then?

The White Feel

The imagery of Dove brand has been created around the color white – probably due to its implication of purity. Although now they have included a shade of blue in the shampoo range, the soap is still organized around white. The fairness of women who gave testimonials is probably just another way to accentuate the brand feel.

This kind of brand identity accentuation is fraught with risks. One of the primary risks is clearly of alienating the dark-complexioned customers. This consideration offers some important hypotheses:

1. Fairness is considered an aspirational trait and hence the risk of alienating dark-complexioned customers is low
   • The attraction of Indians towards fair skin is a well-known (as also an adequately debated) phenomenon. Dove may be banking upon this phenomenon to mitigate this risk of alienation.
   • While playing on psychological biases is not new for any Corporate, it’s somewhat hypocritical for a brand that wonders why our perception of beauty is distorted and vouches for real beauty (India is not in the list of countries).
   • All the same, Dove may not be at a major disadvantage if Indian consumer’s attraction to fair-skin outweighs the sense of exclusion that the commercial creates
2. Dark-complexioned customers (most likely a high proportion of Indian population) are not the target segment for Dove
   • The TG for Dove may exclude the dark-complexioned women. Not that dark-complexioned women have no need for a soft skin, but they may be excluded for other reasons.
   • Dove is probably the most costly soap and has always been positioned as a premium brand in India. Thus, it can be argued that Dove would be bought mostly by higher income groups. Is it possible that folks at HUL figured out that most women in higher income households happen to be fair?
   • People in South India have darker complexion (an evolutionary adaptation found in most equatorial and tropical regions of the world) compared to North India (an evolutionary adaptation found in most temperate regions of the world). The brand Dove may have a lower acceptance in South India as compared to North India and hence the discrepancy
   • In sum, the commercials have focused on strengthening appeal of Dove to its TG

Following the Parent

It is possible that Dove in India is emulating the parent’s actions abroad. Browse the list of countries on Dove.com and one would observe that most of the countries in the list are dominated by non-dark complexioned population. Naturally, Dove’s commercials abroad have had only fair-complexioned women. Perhaps, to save costs by reusing campaign themes or to avoid dilution the brand identity, HUL has chosen to follow the parent Unilever in promoting Dove. Whether, this is the best approach to promoting a product as fantastic as Dove is – in a market of over 300 million households, where HUL nearly owns the FMCG distribution – is debatable.

In Conclusion

It is tough task to conclude which of these (or if all of these) were the exact decision criteria behind led to the observed anomaly. What is relatively easy to infer from the observation and hypotheses which emerge from it, is by creating such gaps in brand perception for Dove, HUL isn’t helping itself or its shareholders.